Last Updated: May 1, 2026
It has been forecasted that the UK elderly care market will reach capacity by 2033 if an influx of new development doesn’t occur. This is according to a new analysis by global real estate advisor Knight Frank.
The analysis shows that the net supply of UK care beds has grown by a little over 136 throughout the past year to 480,000. Although there has been a 24% year-on-year rise in new home completions, this has been offset by supply leakage and rising deregistration of older homes.
It reveals that care home bed supply has expanded by 2.4% over the past decade, this is lagging behind the 16.2% growth in the UK’s over-65 population.
Planning approvals granted were also lower in 2026 compared to 2025. This shows a narrowing of development and a widening gap between planning consent and delivery.
Together, these trends point towards an impending care supply crisis for the UK and the critical need for accelerated development to meet the needs of a rapidly aging population.
In addition to this, the existing care home bed supply in the UK is also in need of an upgrade. 79% of homes are more than 20 years old, rendering many as functionally obsolete. 38% of homes have also been converted from other uses, which means they often don’t meet modern expectations, particularly in respect to resident wellbeing and the provision of ensuite facilities.
Another challenge facing the sector is that almost one in five (19%) UK care homes are currently rated as ‘Requires Improvement’ or ‘Inadequate’ by the Care Quality Commission (CQC).
Julian Evans, Global Head of Healthcare at Knight Frank, said, ‘The COVID-19 pandemic brought the UK care market into sharp focus, underscoring the critical need for an adequate supply of purpose-built beds capable of meeting the complex needs of a rapidly ageing population. […] Knight Frank’s analysis demonstrates that supply is failing to keep pace with demand. Without a significant acceleration in both investment and development to upgrade standing stock and deliver new beds […], the UK is fast approaching a crisis in care provision, with domestic bed capacity projected to reach saturation by the end of the decade.’
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